Space Governance & Long-Run Futures
As humanity expands into space, governance frameworks for resource extraction, colonization, and conflict resolution are being established now. Early decisions may lock in structures for millennia.
Scale of the Problem
The 1967 Outer Space Treaty — the main governance framework — was written before the internet and has not been updated.
Long-run stakes are potentially vast. If humanity or digital minds become spacefaring, decisions made now about governance could shape billions of lives over millennia. Near-term stakes include orbital debris that could render low-Earth orbit unusable, contested lunar and asteroid resource rights, and the potential deployment of anti-satellite weapons.
Why This Is Pressing
Commercial spaceflight is expanding rapidly through SpaceX, satellite constellations, and proposed asteroid and lunar resource ventures, while the governing treaty framework (the 1967 Outer Space Treaty and related agreements) is decades old and leaves major questions unresolved. Norms, property regimes, and military rules established in the current window could shape humanity's long-run future off-Earth. Immediate issues such as orbital debris, lunar resource claims, and the militarization of space also matter for near-term stability.
Why It's Neglected
The space-policy field is small, and longtermism-aligned space governance work is smaller still. A few researchers at Forethought, Oxford GPI, academic space-law programs, and national space agencies contribute. Total longtermism-aligned funding is under 5 million dollars per year.
Can It Be Solved?
There is a window of relative openness as commercial space expands. The Artemis Accords show that multilateral norm-setting on lunar activity is possible. Levers include orbital-debris-mitigation treaties, resource-use rules, export controls on anti-satellite technology, and preserving scientific access to critical orbits and bodies.
Research & Solutions
The Final Frontier of Governance: Establishing Rules for Space Before It's Too Late
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What You Can Do
What this problem still needs
Research at Forethought, Oxford GPI, or space-law and policy programs. Space-law careers in academia or national space agencies. Policy work at NASA, ESA, or national equivalents. Think-tank work on long-run norms and orbital debris. Support the Secure World Foundation and similar organizations.
Priority Score
19
Breakdown
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