Nuclear Weapons & Disarmament
The world's ~12,500 nuclear warheads pose an existential threat to civilization. A large exchange between major powers could trigger nuclear winter, kill hundreds of millions directly, and collapse global food systems for years.
Scale of the Problem
A regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan could kill 100 million people within weeks and cause a global famine affecting 2 billion.
Nine states possess nuclear weapons, with the US and Russia holding 88% of the global total. A full exchange between these two countries would kill an estimated 100–300 million people directly, and nuclear winter models project a multi-year agricultural collapse that could threaten the survival of billions more. Toby Ord estimates a 0.1% per year probability of nuclear war causing existential catastrophe — compounding to approximately 10% over a century. A regional nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan — both increasing their arsenals — could kill 100 million within weeks and produce global famine affecting 2 billion.
Why This Is Pressing
The world's approximately 12,500 nuclear warheads pose a civilizational risk with no close analogue. A large-scale exchange between the US and Russia could kill hundreds of millions directly and trigger nuclear winter — a collapse in global agriculture sufficient to cause famine at civilizational scale. New risk pathways have emerged since the Cold War: AI integration into military decision systems compresses decision timelines from hours to minutes; cyber vulnerabilities in command-and-control infrastructure create new pathways to accidental launch; the collapse of New START in 2026 left the world's two largest arsenals unconstrained for the first time in 50 years. The field has genuine tractability via arms control, de-alerting, and hotline diplomacy — but is chronically understaffed and underresourced relative to the stakes.
Why It's Neglected
Nuclear security philanthropy is approximately $1.5 billion per year globally — less than the cost of one aircraft carrier. Organizations like the Ploughshares Fund, Arms Control Association, and Carnegie Endowment work with small teams relative to the scale of the risk. The intersection of AI and nuclear security — arguably the most urgent emerging sub-problem — has under $50 million in dedicated research funding globally. The technical workforce at the AI-nuclear intersection is estimated at fewer than 100 researchers worldwide.
Can It Be Solved?
Nuclear risk has historically been tractable via diplomacy and arms control. The SALT, INF, and START treaties verifiably reduced arsenals by thousands of warheads. De-alerting proposals — extending decision time from minutes to days for 2,000 warheads on hair-trigger alert — are technically straightforward and have precedents. No-first-use pledges, hotline modernization, and cyber-nuclear security agreements are achievable with sustained diplomatic pressure. AI-nuclear governance frameworks are an emerging area with a narrow window for international norm-setting.
Research & Solutions
The Nuclear Threat in the 21st Century: Risks, Pathways, and Reduction Strategies
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What You Can Do
What this problem still needs
Support Ploughshares Fund — the primary philanthropic funder of nuclear policy work, with grants to Arms Control Association, SIPRI, and advocacy organizations. Careers in nuclear policy at RAND, Carnegie Endowment, Brookings, or government agencies. Technical research at the AI-nuclear intersection is a high-value, talent-limited area. Donate to the Arms Control Association or the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists for policy research and public education.
Priority Score
21
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