Great Power Conflict
Military competition between major powers, especially around AI and nuclear weapons, raises the risk of catastrophic war. AI-accelerated decision cycles and autonomous weapons lower the threshold for escalation.
Scale of the Problem
Nuclear weapons states possess ~12,500 warheads; AI could compress decision timelines from days to seconds.
Direct deaths from a US-Russia nuclear exchange are estimated in the hundreds of millions, with climatic and agricultural follow-on effects potentially killing several billion more. Conventional great-power war alone would be catastrophic. Toby Ord estimates roughly 0.1 percent existential risk from nuclear war this century, and meaningfully higher probability of non-existential catastrophe.
Why This Is Pressing
US-China strategic competition, Russia's war in Ukraine, and AI-enabled military modernization raise the probability of a major-power conflict. Global nuclear arsenals still total roughly 12,000 warheads, and arms-control treaties have eroded. A US-China war over Taiwan or escalation in Europe could credibly risk nuclear use. AI in early-warning, command-and-control, and autonomous weapons introduces new escalation pathways that have not been stress-tested.
Why It's Neglected
Funding for nuclear-risk-focused work has shrunk dramatically since the 1990s. The Nuclear Threat Initiative operates on around 50 million dollars per year. The arms-control community is aging, and China-focused policy capacity in the US is limited relative to the strategic importance of the relationship.
Can It Be Solved?
The track record includes SALT, START, New START, the INF Treaty, and various confidence-building measures. Current levers include stockpile reduction, launch-on-warning reform, keeping AI out of nuclear command-and-control, crisis hotlines, and track-II diplomacy. New arms-control agreements are politically hard now but may become feasible after crises.
Research & Solutions
Nuclear Shadows and Digital Accelerants: AI's Role in Great Power Competition
WorldProblems Solved
Sign in to read full documents, vote on solutions, and submit your own research.
What You Can Do
What this problem still needs
Nuclear-policy careers at NTI, Carnegie, Ploughshares Fund, or RAND. China-West diplomacy and track-II dialogue work. Donate to Ploughshares Fund or NTI. Research on AI-in-nuclear-systems policy. Support arms-control advocacy and congressional staff roles on foreign relations committees.
Priority Score
19
Breakdown
Fund this problem
Support the researchers and organizations working on Great Power Conflict.
Donate to this causeContribute to solving this
Create a free account to submit research, vote on solutions, and follow this problem.
Join for free