Global fertility has fallen below replacement for the first time in human history, with roughly 70% of people living in below-replacement countries — foreshadowing aging populations, shrinking workforces, and eventual depopulation. The trend is real but slow-moving and policy-resistant.
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For the first time in human history, global fertility has fallen below the replacement rate, with most of humanity now living in below-replacement countries. This founding report surveys the demographic data, examines why pro-natal policies have repeatedly failed, weighs the contested long-run consequences, and outlines an underexplored research agenda for understanding and responding to demographic decline.
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