Rank #13 ITN Score: 19/30

Climate Change & Ecological Collapse

Climate change poses serious risks to billions through extreme weather, sea level rise, agricultural disruption, and ecosystem collapse. While well-studied, implementation of solutions remains critically underfunded.

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Climate Tipping Points and the Limits of Incrementalismv1Accepted

WorldProblems Consortium

Climate change is the best-studied problem on this list and the least neglected. Yet implementation of known solutions remains critically underfunded and politically blocked. This report does not re-litigate the climate science but focuses on what the EA and existential risk communities can add: attention to tail risks, climate-conflict interactions, and the philanthropic gap between awareness and effective action.

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Evidence & References

80,000 Hours Problem Profile

https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/climate-change/

Problem Profile

Why Pressing

Global mean temperature has exceeded 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels in some recent years, and several tipping points (Amazon dieback, ice-sheet collapse, weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) appear closer than earlier models suggested. Mainstream decarbonization has momentum, but high-emissions paths remain plausible and the tail risk of 3 to 4 degrees C warming by 2100 is not ruled out. Delays in policy and deployment now have locked-in costs that accumulate for decades.

Scale

The IPCC AR6 projects severe impacts on food systems, water availability, migration, and biodiversity at 2 degrees C, and catastrophic impacts at 4 degrees C or more. Deaths from heat, drought, and indirect effects could reach hundreds of millions this century under worst-case trajectories. Economic damages are estimated in tens of trillions of dollars cumulatively.

Neglectedness

Climate is well-funded globally, with 1 to 2 trillion dollars per year in clean-energy investment, so it is not neglected overall. But specific niches remain underfunded, including extreme-tail scenario research, advanced nuclear fission, next-generation geothermal, solar radiation management research, and clean-energy advocacy in developing countries.

Tractability

Solar, wind, and batteries are now cheaper than fossil fuels in most regions. Electrification of transport and heating is proven. Policy wins including the US Inflation Reduction Act and the EU Emissions Trading System demonstrate tractability. Hard sectors such as aviation, cement, and steel still need technical breakthroughs, and clean-energy advocacy is among the most cost-effective climate interventions.